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Friday, June 27, 2008

MI: Detroit mayor's troubles could affect mom's primary chances

9:59 AM

CQ Politics today listed Michigan's 13th Congressional District as one of eight districts nationwide where an incumbent could face a challenging primary situation in the Aug. 5 election.

The story reports that six-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of controversial Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, is facing a "serious primary challenge" from state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters.

From the story:
Waters in particular is seeking to hold the House incumbent accountable for the mayor's behavior, arguing that Kilpatrick's unflagging defense of her son indicates bad priorities. "Sorry, congresswoman, but we deserve much better than 'ya'll boy,'" the Waters campaign said in an Internet ad, echoing a quote from Kilpatrick about her son.

The primary is effectively the only contest in the black-majority 13th, which gave 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry 80 percent of its votes.


Thursday, June 26, 2008

OH, MI, MN, WI: AFL-CIO to focus on Midwestern swing states

12:53 PM

On the day that the AFL-CIO announced its endorsement of Barack Obama, Hotline On Call reports that the union "will launch a $53.4M program today in support of Barack Obama, focusing on 24 priority states and more than 13M voters."

And among those 24 states, the top priorities are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Here's what the Washington Post says about the effort:
The top targets for the AFL-CIO's presidential campaign efforts will be in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota -- the swing states where it has the most members. All except Ohio voted Democratic in 2004, which may make the effort seem defensive in nature, but at the same time, Obama's prospects for picking up a few new states elsewhere mean that he could be in good shape if he, and the unions, can hold the Rust Belt steady for him. In Ohio alone, the coalition says, it expects more than two million voters to be members of AFL households, or of households that belong to Working America, an organization the AFL has created for people who cannot join unions at their workplaces.
The AFL-CIO also launched a new Web site called "Meet Barack Obama" today. The site will dovetail with what the union calls "its largest grassroots political mobilization in history", aimed at "mobilizing more than 13 million union voters -- including union members, families of members, retirees and members of the AFL-CIO community affiliate Working America."


MN: Bachmann challenger picks up Independence Party endorsement

11:08 AM

In Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, first-term Republican U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann is facing a challenge from the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party's Elwyn Tinklenberg. Last weekend the state's Independence Party also backed Tinklenberg's bid, a development that one liberal Minnesota blogger calls "a very big development."

Blogger Christopher Truscott interviewed Tinklenberg campaign manager Anna Richey and DFL communications director John Stiles about the news. Here's an excerpt from the Richey interview:
CT: Peter Hutchinson, Dean Barkley and others said the IP has the "balance of power" in the district based on the 2006 results. What do you all expect to get from the party?

AR: The IP has their own network and it is stronger in the sixth than other places around the State. We anticipate having support from their individual members, certainly, but the most important thing they are giving El through their endorsement is credibility to his message of coalition-building and working across party lines. It will be much harder to frame him as a "far-left-liberal" with 2/3 of the major parties in the state endorsing him.
Read the whole interview


Tuesday, June 24, 2008

OH, WI, MN, IA: SEIU working on general election plans

12:21 PM

The Service Employees International Union announced today that Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa will be among the handful of states it plans to target in November.

"More than 100,000 SEIU members will be volunteering their time to elect a pro-worker majority in Congress and elect Barack Obama as our next president," said Secretary-Treasurer Anna Burger. "They will reach out to voters in their communities with a clear message about which candidate will end the war in Iraq, ensure guaranteed affordable health care for everyone and build a new American Dream for workers."

SEIU plans to spend $85 million assisting U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's efforts as well as gubernatorial and U.S. Senate and House races. The group will have operations in swing states such as Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. SEIU's plan includes advertising, direct mail and get-out-the-vote efforts.

See the SEIU press release


Wednesday, June 18, 2008

OH: Quinnipiac Poll has Obama up on McCain 48-42

12:32 PM

A new Ohio poll from Quinnipiac University has Dem Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain 48 percent to 42 percent, just outside the poll's margin of error.

Obama trails among white voters in Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters and has a double-digit lead among young voters.

Ohio's thoughts on Sen. Hillary Clinton as Obama's running mate, according to the poll press release: "Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent."

In Ohio Quinnipiac surveyed 1,396 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Quinnipiac also surveyed voters in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Florida.

Read the entire poll release


Tuesday, June 17, 2008

IA, MI, WI, OH: NARAL poll says abortion issue could help Obama

6:00 PM

A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll commissioned by NARAL Pro-Choice America in 12 battleground states suggests that abortion rights could play an important role in building a winning coalition for Barack Obama.

Key findings, according to the poll press release:
* Once balanced information about Obama and McCain’s respective positions on choice is introduced, Obama gains 6 points overall, with his lead in these twelve states expanding from a net 2 points (47–45 percent) to a net 13 points (53–40 percent).

* The issue of choice moves the swing vote and generates crossover support. Obama gains 13 points among pro-choice Independent women (who make up 9 percent of this electorate) and 9 points among pro-choice Republican women (who account for 5 percent of this electorate). When these groups are combined, this movement equates to a gain of 1.6 points overall in the general election race against McCain.
The 12 battleground states polled included Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Download the full report for details


IA: Bush plans Thursday Iowa visit

4:04 PM

President George W. Bush discussed the Midwest floods this morning in the Roosevelt Room in the White House and discussed Iowa, a state he plans to visit on Thursday. Details surrounding the president's visit remain uncertain.

"This Thursday I'm going to take our team down there to meet with the folks in Iowa," Bush said. "And I, unfortunately, have been to too many disasters as president. But one thing I've always learned is that the American citizen can overcome these disasters. And life, while it may seem dim at this point in time, can always be better because of the resiliency and care of our citizens."



OH: Obama up 11 points in new PPP poll

3:51 PM

From Public Policy Polling:
Barack Obama kicks off the general election with a 50-39 lead over John McCain in Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

It's a significant change from PPP's most recent previous Ohio survey, conducted in March, which found Obama trailing McCain 49-41 during the heart of the Jeremiah Wright controversy.

Obama leads by equal margins among men and women, and has a four point lead with white voters while also holding a dominant 75-21 advantage with African Americans.


Thursday, June 12, 2008

IL: U.S. Rep. Kirk up 19 points in new internal poll

4:22 PM

From Swing State Project:
McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk (6/9, likely voters, 3/16 in parens):
Dan Seals (D): 32 (29)
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 53 (50) (MoE: ±6%)

You can take this with as many grains of salt as you wish, but as it stands now, Seals has room to grow, even according to this poll.


IA: New poll has Obama up on McCain 45%-38% in Iowa

8:37 AM

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain in Iowa 45 percent to 38 percent. The 7-point margin is wider than Obama's lead in two previous Rasmussen polls, where he had margins of 2 points and 4 points.

The poll also looked at the potential of Obama selecting Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Thirty-five percent of Iowa Democrats believed she should be VP, compared to 51 percent of Dems nationally.

Rasmussen also looked at how the candidates did by gender: "Obama has expanded his lead based primarily on more support from women. He leads now by nineteen points among women, up from an eight point advantage last month. McCain has a seven-point advantage among men."

The telephone poll of 500 likely voters, conducted on June 10, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

See the poll release


Wednesday, June 11, 2008

WI: Obama up 13 points on McCain in first post-Clinton prez poll

11:49 PM

In the inaugural UW Dept. of Political Science/ survey, taken immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign, Barack Obama leads John McCain by 13 percentage points in the Badger state.

The survey of 506 randomly selected probable voters was conducted by phone from June 8- June 10 under the direction of Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein from the University of Wisconsin Department of Political Science. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Consistent with evidence from other national surveys, the study paints a picture of a hostile political environment in the swing state of Wisconsin for Republicans in 2008. Eight in 10 Wisconsin voters think the country is going in the wrong direction, President George W. Bush has a favorability rating of only 30 percent, 66 percent believe that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, and the top two issue concerns are the economy and getting U.S. soldiers out of Iraq.

See the full UW Department of Political Science/ poll

Read the press release on presidential race results

Read the press release on other state results

Listen to a luncheon with Goldstein and Franklin


Tuesday, June 10, 2008

OH: Gov. Strickland not interested in VP slot

9:50 PM

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, a Hillary Clinton ally portrayed as a potential Barack Obama VP pick was emphatic today in expressing his disinterest in the position.

"If drafted, I will not run; nominated, I will not accept; and if elected, I will not serve," he told NPR's "All Things Considered."

But his stance isn't necessarily a repudiation of Obama. Marc Ambinder points out
Strickland's been clear about his VP feelings since at least late last year.


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