NBC's political team has moved Michigan and Wisconsin from toss-up status to "lean Obama" in its latest analysis of the electoral map. Here's where the MidwestPolitics.com states line up:
Likely Obama: IL
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, WI
From NBC's First Read
Per our map, to reach 270, Obama has to hold on to the Kerry states -- winning New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and pick up just one more state other than Nevada (which would get him to 269 and send the election to the House). Here's McCain's challenge: If he's unable to turn a blue state red, then he has to win EVERY SINGLE Toss-up to get to 270. It's doable, but it's also the poker equivalent of drawing an inside straight.