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Monday, October 6, 2008

MI: Ruffini questions McCain's move out of Michigan

4:36 PM

Patrick Ruffini, a high-profile conservative online activist and former Bush-Cheney webmaster, thinks John McCain's campaign is miscalculating by pulling out of Michigan in favor of states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The McCain withdrawal from Michigan was done ostensibly to redirect resources to more winnable states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But is Michigan really the weakest of these three states? ...

I won't lie. All three states are extremely uphill at the moment. But I could make a case for dropping Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa long before I'd make the case for Michigan.

I have put together a spreadsheet showing where McCain should stand in all swing states given national polling and the 2004 baseline. Michigan is one of the two states where McCain is performing strongest relative to 2004 if you compare the polling averages to the expected outcome. The other is New Hampshire. ...

Michigan carries more symbolic import than a Wisconsin or Minnesota, which haven't gone Republican since 1984 and 1972 respectively. It is home to "bitter" America and doesn't have much of a progressive streak. The consquences of pulling out could be to demoralize the troops nationally, not just in one state.
Read Ruffini's full post for more analysis


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